Research analysing the results of the 2024 general election and the rise of Reform in the UK.
The 2024 UK General Election was not just a historic win for Labour but marked the worst performance in the history of the Conservative party. This landslide victory was secured by the Conservative vote share plummeting by 20%, to just 121 seats. Remarkably, the collapse in government’s popularity wasn’t solely down to Labour, which saw its vote share rise by just 2%, but largely due to increased support for other political parties. Liberal Democrats secured 72 seats receiving 12.2% of the vote, placing them third in terms of seats. Under the leadership of Nigel Farage, Reform UK (previously the Brexit Party) won the third largest share of the votes at 14.3% but came in sixth place having only secured five seats.
Oliver Heath, Professor of Politics, and Chris Prosser, Senior Lecturer in Politics, are researching the results of the 2024 general election and the rise of Reform in the UK. Their recent paper examines the reach of the Eurosceptic and anti-immigration movement within British society and asks whether the 2024 election results suggest a deepening of the social divides that contributed to the rise of Nigel Farage’s previous party, UKIP. Specifically, they look at the social base of support for Reform UK and how it has evolved since 1997, comparing similarities between the Reform party and UKIP.
Professor Heath and colleagues created a unique dataset using general election results between 1997-2019, mapped to constituency boundaries for the 2024 election, together with data from the British Election Study Internet Panel and information from the 2021 census. The results provide an insight into voting patterns of current constituencies and the changing levels of support for Eurosceptic parties. It examines who votes for Reform and whether Nigel Farage’s new party depends on the same types of voters who had previously backed UKIP.
| "I think one of the most striking findings is that support for Reform in 2024 is almost a mirror image of UKIP in 2015. This consistency in support is even more remarkable when you think about everything that’s happened since 2015. We’ve had Brexit, which was bought about, at least partly, by David Cameron to try and quash the threat of UKIP and this Eurosceptic movement. Now 10 years later, you see the Tories in the doldrums in 2024 having suffered their worst election defeat, and Reform even ahead of where UKIP was 10 years ago, which started this whole movement.” said Professor Heath |
Reform performed better than any challenger party has ever performed, with around four million voters backing Nigel Farage. The 2024 election mirrored the 2015 election in many other ways. A significant number of voters changed their political allegiance, and the two main political parties received little support. Both parties were led by Nigel Farage, both parties hold Eurosceptic, anti-immigration, right-wing views and both parties achieved the third largest share of the vote.
The research also revealed that many Reform voters are not the same as previous UKIP voters, but that there are similarities. There is a strong relationship between the places that backed leave in 2016 and the places that supported Reform in 2024. The five seats that Reform won were amongst the most pro-leave constituencies in the 2016 referendum.
In their election campaign, UKIP portrayed themselves as the ‘common sense’ party, championing the interests of ordinary people. This generated support from frustrated British working-class voters, who had previously supported Labour. UKIP appealed to older, white voters who had grown up with limited contact with migrants and people from other countries. Support for the Reform party has strengthened in these areas and now exceeds what UKIP ever obtained.
Professor Heath said: “This indicates that Reform is building support in areas of prior strength. It has deepened its support in working class areas which are predominantly white British, suggesting that social divides may be hardening rather than softening. There is evidence that Reform’s support is more socially divided than UKIPs was, suggesting that the divisions fuelling support for UKIP and Brexit are intensifying.”
According to the British Election Study Internet Panel, nearly 80% of people who voted for Reform in 2024 had previously voted for the Conservatives, and Nigel Farage and his political party continues to gain support. A recent poll suggests that Reform UK is on track to get the most seats if an election took place this year.
The research indicates that despite the high levels of volatility around recent elections, the consistent backing of UKIP and Reform suggests their political ideologies have a strong foundation of support. Yet there is little evidence to suggest that Reform has expanded beyond the UKIP base over the last decade. Instead, it seems to have strengthened its presence in regions where UKIP was strong, making the party a more credible and competitive political contender. This suggests that the Conservatives might face more challenges in reclaiming these votes than they anticipate.
This research is part of the Democracy and Social Change in Britian, 1851-2024 project, a 2-year project funded by the Economic & Social Research Council (ESRC).
